Patrick Henry, one of America’s political “Founding Fathers”, is remembered for orations such as his 1775 one: “Give me liberty or give me death!” In a March 1799 speech, in regard to the Virginia and Kentucky Resolutions, he declared: “United we stand, divided we fall. Let us not split into factions which must destroy the union upon which our existence hangs.”

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CONCLUSION

The Federal Reserve releases a real Broad Dollar Index (H.10; January 2006=100; monthly average) as well as a nominal Broad Dollar Index (daily data) covering both goods and services. These Indexes are useful measures of overall United States dollar strength (weakness) and trends. “As the World Turns: Marketplace Battlefields” (1/1/25) noted: “Though the ‘overall’ United States dollar may remain strong for a while longer due to relatively lofty US interest rates, the real Broad Dollar Index probably will begin to decline from around current levels, which have reached the major resistance barriers of autumn 2022. It eventually will retreat toward its key support at April 2020’s 113.4 elevation (recall also December 2023’s 113.9).” “Shakin’ All Over: Financial and Political Turmoil” (4/1/25) emphasized: “The real Broad Dollar Index probably peaked in January 2025 and likely will continue to decline over the long run.” 

The real Broad Dollar Index attained its summit in January 2025 at 122.6, and the nominal Broad Dollar Index peaked at 130.2 on 1/13/25. Through September 2025, the real Broad Dollar Index has depreciated about 6.6 percent from its January 2025 high, and the nominal Broad Dollar Index has descended 8.1 percent. The percentage depreciation and time duration of the decline in the real Broad Dollar Index since January 2025 has been significantly less than that of past major bear moves in the dollar. The US dollar probably will continue to depreciate. Though marketplace history of course does not necessarily repeat itself, either entirely or even partly, this dollar bear move probably will be fairly substantial and may last several years. Thus the real BDI probably will decline beneath April 2020’s important support at 113.4. Competitive depreciation may mitigate the US dollar’s long run decline, but it will not avert its fall.

ALL ALONG THE WATCHTOWER: US DOLLAR DEPRECIATION © Leo Haviland October 1, 2025