GLOBAL ECONOMICS AND POLITICS

Leo Haviland provides clients with original, provocative, cutting-edge fundamental supply/demand and technical research on major financial marketplaces and trends. He also offers independent consulting and risk management advice.

Haviland’s expertise is macro. He focuses on the intertwining of equity, debt, currency, and commodity arenas, including the political players, regulatory approaches, social factors, and rhetoric that affect them. In a changing and dynamic global economy, Haviland’s mission remains constant – to give timely, value-added marketplace insights and foresights.

Leo Haviland has three decades of experience in the Wall Street trading environment. He has worked for Goldman Sachs, Sempra Energy Trading, and other institutions. In his research and sales career in stock, interest rate, foreign exchange, and commodity battlefields, he has dealt with numerous and diverse financial institutions and individuals. Haviland is a graduate of the University of Chicago (Phi Beta Kappa) and the Cornell Law School.

 

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US STOCKS OVER THE LONG RUN: BEAR MARKETPLACE HISTORY © Leo Haviland, August 4, 2023

“It’s déjà vu all over again!”, declared Yogi Berra, a famous baseball star.

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OVERVIEW AND CONCLUSION

Given the great significance of the United States within the global economy, both Wall Street and Main Street spend much attention and energy focusing on the American economic scene. Benchmark American stock indices such as the S+P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average to some extent probably reflect the overall health of and potential for the American economy. 

United States stock marketplace trends and phenomena intertwine with those of other global stock arenas. Prices and trends for (and assorted other economic, political, and social variables influencing) US signpost stock indices such as the S+P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average interrelate with those of key American and global interest rate, currency, commodity, real estate, and other economic domains. History reveals that these cultural relationships can and do change, sometimes slowly, sometimes rapidly. Convergence and divergence (lead/lag) patterns between marketplaces can and do shift or transform. 

Price levels and trends for these key American equity marketplaces therefore attract and sustain widespread and domestic international attention. 

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US interest rate, dollar, commodity, real estate, and other marketplace trends entangle with and influence American stock trends. 

“Long Run Historical Entanglement: US Interest Rate and Stock Trends” (7/6/23) concluded: “Many times over the past century, significantly increasing United States interest rates have preceded a major peak, or at least a noteworthy top, in key stock marketplace benchmarks such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S+P 500. The yield climb sometimes has occurred over a rather extended time span. The arithmetical (basis point) change has not always been large. Sometimes the yield advance has extended past the time of the stock pinnacle.”

“Given the historic pattern in which UST [US Treasury; focus on the UST 10 year note] yield increases “lead” to peaks in key American stock benchmarks such as the S+P 500, do signs of a noteworthy rising yield trend exist on the interest rate front? Yes.” And “the pattern of rising UST 10 year note yields likely is leading to another peak in the S+P 500. This stock marketplace peak probably will occur relatively soon, probably within the next few weeks or months. However, even if the S+P 500 continues to climb, it probably will not exceed its January 2022 peak by much if at all.” 

The UST 10 year note yield broke through 3/2/23’s 4.09 percent interim high with 8/3/23’s 4.20 percent high. It thus is approaching 10/21/22’s 4.34 percent top, attained around the time of the S+P 500’s crucial trough on 10/13/22 at 3492. 

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Given the importance of price trends in widely watched US equity indices such as the S+P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, stock and other marketplace players and observers should review and assess long run bear (and bull) marketplace history for those American benchmarks. 

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FOLLOW THE LINK BELOW to download this article as a PDF file.
US Stocks Over the Long Run- Bear Marketplace History (8-4-23)

JAPANESE YEN: CURRENCY ADVENTURES (2007-09 REVISITED) © Leo Haviland January 14, 2016

In Akira Kurosawa’s famous film “Yojimbo”, a farmer remarks: “Everybody’s after easy money.”

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CONCLUSION

In recent months, much marketplace and media attention regarding foreign exchange arenas has focused on the travels of the United States dollar, the Chinese renminbi, the Euro FX, and an assortment of emerging marketplace currencies. The Japanese Yen has captured relatively little of the limelight. But it should.

Marketplace history of course need not repeat itself, either completely or even partly, but players should not overlook or dismiss parallels. The Japanese Yen’s rally in the past few months reflects current (and points to further) worldwide economic weakness. Recall the Yen’s rally during the worldwide economic crisis of 2007-09.

During the acceleration of the global economic disaster of 2007-09, both the Japanese Yen and the United States dollar made major bull moves on a broad real trade-weighted (effective exchange rate) basis. The Yen tumbled dramatically from its 2011/2012 summits. But that bear move probably ceased in mid-2015. The modest rally in the Yen since June 2015 has coincided with the continued advance of the dollar’s broad real trade-weighted major bull move. Moreover, as during the 2007-09 crisis span, the Yen’s effective exchange rate climb has accompanied a rally in its cross rate against the dollar.

Not only is the current Yen bull trend a bearish sign for world economic growth. It also is a bearish indicator for the Nikkei, S+P 500, and other key stock benchmarks. As massive Yen depreciation alongside quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE) helped to propel the Nikkei (and thereby other stock marketplaces such as the S+P 500 higher), growing Yen strength (all else equal) tends to push the Nikkei and other stock realms lower. The Yen march upward since June 2015 coincides with slides in equities, a drop in the US Treasury 10 year note yield, and renewed sharp falls in commodities “in general” (and petroleum in particular).

BOTTOM LINES

On 1/14/16, the S+P 500 touched a low at 1879, very close to its 8/24/15 low at 1867. It then rallied, closing around 1922. The Nikkei’s 1/14/16 low at 16944 hovers right above its 9/29/15 trough. What about the Shanghai Composite? Its low on 1/14/16 at 2868 neighbors its 8/26/15 depth at 2851.

Previous essays have discussed the Federal Reserve Board’s effort to slow, halt, or reverse marketplace declines in the S+P 500. For example, see “Playing Percentages: Stock Marketplace Games” (7/13/15). In the current environment, stock slumps of around ten and 20 percent from an important plateau (such as the May 2015 one) are important guideline levels for the Fed. The Fed’s preferred method to stop downward moves of around ten percent is talk (wordplay) rather than action. Falls of around 20 percent (or more) increase the odds of action (perhaps even renewed quantitative easing).

Thus today’s speech from James Bullard, the President of the St. Louis Fed, is rhetoric aiming to support US (and perhaps other) stocks (“Oil Prices, Inflation and U.S. Monetary Policy”).

Such charming wordplay from the Fed (and its central banking allies) can induce rallies in the S+P 500. However, it probably will not stop the S+P 500 from resuming its bear move and breaking beneath its August 2015 bottom. The Nikkei will fall under its 9/29/15 low, and the Shanghai Composite will venture beneath its late August 2015 bottom. The broad real TWD will remain strong for at least the near term; the Japan EER will continue its modest rally, as will the Yen’s advance against the US dollar.

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For additional currency, stock, interest rate, and commodity marketplace analysis, see “The Curtain Rises: 2016 Marketplace Theaters” (1/4/16) and earlier essays.

FOLLOW THE LINK BELOW to download this article as a PDF file.
Japanese Yen- Currency Adventures (2007-09 Revisited) (1-14-16)