Leo Haviland provides clients with original, provocative, cutting-edge fundamental supply/demand and technical research on major financial marketplaces and trends. He also offers independent consulting and risk management advice.

Haviland’s expertise is macro. He focuses on the intertwining of equity, debt, currency, and commodity arenas, including the political players, regulatory approaches, social factors, and rhetoric that affect them. In a changing and dynamic global economy, Haviland’s mission remains constant – to give timely, value-added marketplace insights and foresights.

Leo Haviland has three decades of experience in the Wall Street trading environment. He has worked for Goldman Sachs, Sempra Energy Trading, and other institutions. In his research and sales career in stock, interest rate, foreign exchange, and commodity battlefields, he has dealt with numerous and diverse financial institutions and individuals. Haviland is a graduate of the University of Chicago (Phi Beta Kappa) and the Cornell Law School.


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The Japanese Yen has remained powerful relative to other currencies “in general” since autumn 2010. On an effective exchange rate basis, as well as against the United States dollar in particular, the Yen is around major resistance. However, the Yen probably will advance further over the next several months. Though many intertwining variables influence currency levels and trends, the fragility of the current worldwide recovery and the continuation of the global financial crisis that erupted in 2007 will play a key role in the continued Yen rally.

Assume America resolves its current battles related to the federal debt ceiling. Proposals likely to be enacted, though representing progress in cutting deficits over the next decade, are modest. In addition, these Washington fiscal fixes will not be significant in relation to the scope of the underlying long run deficit problem. Therefore, any Yen weakness derived from short-term solutions of United States fiscal deficit issues probably will be temporary.

US policy makers preach their desire for a strong dollar from time to time. Their practices over many months, however, underline their desire for (or at least toleration of) a rather weak TWD. The weak dollar policy may help to boost growth and reduce unemployment, right? Don’t many developing nations want their home currency to be relatively weak? One method by which the US can better compete with many developing (and other) nations, at least in some trade domains, is to depreciate its currency.

Roughly speaking, Japan is a creditor nation. Roughly speaking, and despite its wealth, America is a debtor nation.

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The Strong Yen, the Weak Dollar, a Shaky World (8-2-11)