GLOBAL ECONOMICS AND POLITICS

Leo Haviland provides clients with original, provocative, cutting-edge fundamental supply/demand and technical research on major financial marketplaces and trends. He also offers independent consulting and risk management advice.

Haviland’s expertise is macro. He focuses on the intertwining of equity, debt, currency, and commodity arenas, including the political players, regulatory approaches, social factors, and rhetoric that affect them. In a changing and dynamic global economy, Haviland’s mission remains constant – to give timely, value-added marketplace insights and foresights.

Leo Haviland has three decades of experience in the Wall Street trading environment. He has worked for Goldman Sachs, Sempra Energy Trading, and other institutions. In his research and sales career in stock, interest rate, foreign exchange, and commodity battlefields, he has dealt with numerous and diverse financial institutions and individuals. Haviland is a graduate of the University of Chicago (Phi Beta Kappa) and the Cornell Law School.

 

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US DOLLAR TRAVELS: CROSSTOWN TRAFFIC © Leo Haviland July 2, 2019

“But, darlin’ can’t you see my signals turn from green to red
And with you I can see a traffic jam straight up ahead”. Jimi Hendrix, “Crosstown Traffic”

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CONCLUSION

The broad real trade-weighted United States dollar’s December 2016 (at 103.3)/January 2017 (103.1) peak likely will remain intact (“TWD”; based on goods only; Federal Reserve Board, H.10; monthly average, March 1973=100). The high since then, December 2018’s crest at 102.0, stands slightly beneath this, as does May 2019’s 101.6 (June 2019 was 101.1). December 2018/May 2019’s plateau probably forms a double top in conjunction with December 2016/January 2017’s pinnacle. If the TWD breaks through the December 2016/January 2017 roadblock, it probably will not do so by much. The majestic long-running major bull charge in the dollar which commenced in July 2011 at 80.5 has reached the finish line, or soon will do so. 

Unlike the broad real trade-weighted dollar, the broad nominal trade-weighted dollar (goods only) has daily data. The broad nominal US dollar probably also formed twin peaks. It achieved an initial top on 12/28/16 (at 128.9) and 1/3/17 (128.8). The nominal TWD’s recent high, 5/31/19’s 129.6, edges only half of one percent over the 2016/17 high. 

The depreciation in the broad real trade-weighted dollar from its 103.3/103.1 elevation probably will be at least five percent, and very possibly ten percent. This retreat likely will last at least for several months. 

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The broad real trade-weighted dollar’s level and patterns are relevant for and interrelate with those in key stock, interest rate, commodity, and real estate marketplaces. The extent to which and reasons why foreign exchange levels and trends (whether for the US dollar or any other currency) converge and diverge from (lead/lag) those in stock, interest rate, commodity, and other marketplaces is a matter of subjective perspective. Opinions differ. 

For related marketplace analysis, see essays such as: “Petroleum: Rolling and Tumbling” (6/10/19); “Wall Street Talking, Yield Hunting, and Running for Cover” (5/14/19); “Economic Growth Fears: Stock and Interest Rate Adventures” (4/2/19); “American Economic Growth: Cycles, Yield Spreads, and Stocks” (3/4/19); “Facing a Wall: Emerging US Dollar Weakness” (1/15/19); “American Housing: a Marketplace Weathervane” (12/4/18); “Twists, Turns, and Turmoil: US and Other Government Note Trends” (11/12/18); “Japan: Financial Archery, Shooting Arrows” (10/5/18); “Stock Marketplace Maneuvers: Convergence and Divergence” (9/4/18); “China at a Crossroads: Economic and Political Danger Signs” (8/5/18); “Shakin’ All Over: Marketplace Convergence and Divergence” (6/18/18); “History on Stage: Marketplace Scenes” (8/9/17). 

ON THE ROAD AGAIN

“We’ll be watching out for trouble, yeah (All down the line)
And we keep the motor running, yeah (All down the line)”, The Rolling Stones, “All Down the Line” 

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What interrelated phenomena currently are sparking, or will tend to encourage, near term and long run US dollar weakness? 

Growing faith that America’s Federal Reserve Board not only will refrain from raising the Federal Funds rate anytime soon, but even may reduce it over the next several months, is a critical factor in the construction of the latest segment (December 2018 to the present) of the TWD’s resistance barrier. The Fed Chairman and other US central bank policemen speak of the need for “patience” on the rate increase front. The Fed eagerly promotes its “symmetric” two percent inflation objective (6/19/19 FOMC decision), which blows a horn that it may permit inflation to exceed (move symmetrically around) their revered two percent destination. 

By reducing the likelihood of near term boosts in the Federal Funds rate, and particularly by increasing the odds of lowering this signpost, the Fed gatekeeper thereby cuts the probability of yield increases for US government debt securities. The Fed thus makes the US dollar less appealing (less likely to appreciate further) in the perspective of many marketplace players. 

The Fed’s less aggressive rate scheme (at minimum, a pause in its “normalization” process) mitigates enthusiasm for the US dollar from those aiming to take advantage of interest rate yield differentials (as well as those hoping for appreciation in the value of other dollar-denominated assets such as American stocks or real estate relative to the foreign exchange value of the given home currency). This is despite negative yields in German, Japanese, and other government debt securities. Capital flows into the dollar may slow, or even reverse to some extent. 

The yield for the US Treasury 10 year note, after topping around 3.25 percent in early October 2018, has backtracked further in recent months. The UST resumed its drop from 4/17/19’s minor top at 2.62pc, nosediving from 5/28/19’s 2.32pc elevation. Since late June 2019, its yield has bounced around 2.00pc. 

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The current United States Administration probably wants a weaker US dollar relative to its current elevation in order to stimulate the economy as the 2020 elections approach. President Trump claimed that the European Central Bank, by deliberately pushing down the Euro FX’s value against the dollar, has been unfair, making it easier for the Euro Area to compete against the US (New York Times, 6/19/19, ppA1, 9). Recall his complaints about China’s currency policies as well. The President’s repeated loud sirens that the Federal Reserve made mistakes by raising its policy rates, and instead should be lowering them also messages that the Administration wants the dollar to depreciate. 

Another consideration constructing a noteworthy broad real TWD top is mild, even if nervous, optimism that tariff battles and other aspects of trade wars between America and many of its key trading partners (especially China) will become less fierce. Both the United States and China increasingly are fearful regarding the ability of their nations to maintain adequate real GDP increases.

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US Dollar Travels- Crosstown Traffic (7-2-19)

STOCK MARKETPLACES: AT THE CROSSROADS © Leo Haviland, September 4, 2017

“Money beats soul, every time.” “Roadhouse Blues”, by The Doors, with John Lee Hooker

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CONCLUSION AND OVERVIEW

Many observers (including stock owners) are complacent about prospects for the emergence of significant stock marketplace declines, particularly in regard to the United States stock arena. Even a ten percent drop in US equities would shock many audiences. The S+P 500 and related American benchmarks nevertheless have been in the process of establishing an important top. The glorious long run bull advance in American stocks which started with the S+P 500’s major bottom at 667 on 3/6/09 probably is at or near its end. The S+P 500’s record height to date is 8/8//17’s 2491. That S+P 500 elevation probably will not be exceeded by much, if at all.

American stocks “in general”, although not an isolated island, have their own “individual” stories, as do assorted other stock marketplaces, whether in relation to earnings, valuations, or other phenomena. Yet marketplace history in recent years suggests that prices of stock marketplace signposts for other advanced (developed) nations and for emerging marketplaces “in general” likely will accompany any notable downtrend (including a bear move) in US equities.

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Admittedly, since first quarter 2016, and especially after around America’s November 2016 Presidential election, emerging stock marketplaces generally have rallied alongside the S+P 500 and its domestic comrades such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and Wilshire 5000. But the MSCI Emerging Stock Markets Index, from Morgan Stanley (“MXEF”), a guide for emerging stock marketplaces, is around major resistance and (unlike the S+P 500) well below all-time highs.

Owners of (particularly “investors”) American and international equities hopeful of enjoying further upward rides should note other significant yellow warning lights. In mid-year 2017, leading European and Japanese stock marketplaces established highs. The S+P 500’s 6/19/17 interim top at 2454 occurred around the time of these highs. However, these European and Japanese mid-2017 stock tops have not been broken. And the S+P 500’s August 2017 high exceeds its June 2017 one by only 1.5 percent.

But after their dreary troughs in first quarter 2016, didn’t Germany’s DAX and the United Kingdom’s FTSE exceed their spring 2015 plateaus, as did the S+P 500 (5/20/15 high 2135). Yes, but the April 2015 summit for a broader measure for European stock performance, the STOXX Europe 600 Index (“SXXP”), remains intact. Japan’s June 2015 Nikkei height likewise remains a roadblock.

The adventures of Canada’s S+P/Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index (“SPTSX”) are also a bearish sign to worldwide stock marketplaces. It has failed to vault over its February 2017 top (established prior to the mid-2017 ones in Europe and Japan). Also, February 2017’s SPTSX plateau edged only 1.6 percent above its September 2014 pinnacle.

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Stock Marketplaces- at the Crossroads (9-4-17)

US DOLLAR THEATRICS: DEPRECIATING ACTS © Leo Haviland, June 7, 2017

“Gonna leave this brokedown palace
On my hands and my knees I will roll, roll, roll”. The Grateful Dead, “Brokedown Palace”

CONCLUSION AND OVERVIEW

The gradual depreciation of the broad real trade-weighted United States dollar (“TWD”; Federal Reserve Board, H.10 statistics; monthly average; March 1973=100) that began in December 2016/January 2017 at about 102.8 probably will continue for at least the next several months. Dollar cross rate patterns against assorted individual currencies (such as the Euro FX, Chinese renminbi, and Japanese Yen) are not necessarily the same. In principle and practice, the dollar may rally against one counterpart while getting feebler against another. Nevertheless, the similar weakness in recent months of the dollar’s cross rate versus several key American trading partners manifests the widespread underpinnings of the growing overall dollar breakdown. Gold’s bull climb since December 2016 roughly coincides with and reflects (confirms) the greenback’s erosion.

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Various entangled factors influence foreign exchange levels and patterns, with monetary policy of course being a key variable. Over the past few months and looking forward, underline the US Federal Reserve Board’s willingness to tighten monetary policy by raising the Federal Funds rate; it also hints at the eventual reduction of its bloated balance sheet. Moreover, such Fed action and its forward guidance wordplay contrasts with the ongoing highly accommodative policy of many key central banks (such as the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan). Yet the dollar nevertheless has weakened. In this context, the TWD’s slump over the past few months therefore portends future dollar depreciation. The Fed meets 6/13-14/17, 7/25-26/17, and 9/19-20/17.

Moreover, most believe that US real GDP growth will remain relatively strong. The dollar’s downturn in New Year 2017 is ominous from this perspective as well.

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The 1/20/17 inauguration of President Trump very closely connects in time with the TWD peak. Is this merely a coincidence? Probably not.

Comments during the 2016 election season and its aftermath by Trump and some members of the supporting cast allied with him indicate that he probably wanted some dollar depreciation to help boost US economic growth. Note their criticism of some key European trading partners and China. Isn’t it unfair to the US if the Euro FX or Chinese renminbi are “excessively weak”?

But much more than a willingness by the Trump Administration to permit some dollar bearishness probably explains the dollar’s decline in calendar 2017. After all, the US dollar rallied for several weeks after Trump’s November 2016 victory.

America’s notable political, economic, racial, religious, age, gender, and other divisions and related quarrels preceded Trump’s political showmanship and electoral triumph. But such conflicts arguably have worsened since Trump took office.

Examine the ongoing intensity of the carnival of media coverage relating to such divisions, even after the contentious national election. Look at ferocious debates over Obamacare, fiscal priorities, immigration policy, and climate change. In Washington’s political circus, note the significant disagreements in Congress on assorted key issues. The Republicans control the Presidency, House, and Senate, but they squabble. How likely will there be significant tax “reform” or substantial new infrastructure spending? The degree and scope of Russian involvement in American politics, including relationships with some people within or linked to the Trump Administration, capture headlines.

America’s highly partisan budget battles likely will continue, and its existing long run debt problems will not magically evaporate. Moreover, marketplace wizards generally agree that the enactment of the President’s budget plan (sketch) will widen the deficit dramatically relative to current trends. Of course other nations have big debt problems. Look at Japan’s mammoth government debt, and see China corporate debt (and property, local government, and shadow banking issues). Yet America’s increased indebtedness, particularly if Trump’s vision becomes law, is “newer news” than what has been going on within Japanese and Chinese debt festivals.

In addition, US consumer indebtedness is not small, and it has been creeping higher in absolute terms. The New York Fed reported that total US indebtedness as of end first quarter 2017 was about $12.7 trillion. This placed overall household debt $50 billion above its prior peak of third quarter 2008, and 14.1 percent higher than the trough attained in 2Q13.

And very significantly, many people at home and abroad believe President Trump’s leadership has been and likely will remain erratic. Compare his language and behavior with that of his predecessors.

Given the nation’s significant political (and other interrelated cultural) conflicts and doubts regarding the quality and predictability of Presidential- and Congressional- leadership and action, and “all else equal”, this makes the United States dollar (dollar-denominated assets) somewhat less attractive to hold. Widespread falling (low) public confidence in many US politicians, political processes, and political institutions eventually can generate falling confidence (and thus declines) in the dollar.

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Thus, in recent months, the victory of an apparently populist leader in America contrasts with the maintenance of power by the establishment in most key American trading partners. And the American President’s rhetoric and actions (at least to some extent) not only are divisive, but also seem rather erratic and confused to many

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US Dollar Theatrics- Depreciating Acts (6-7-17)

SEEKING DIRECTIONS: US DOLLAR RETREATS, ADVANCES, AND RELATIONSHIPS (c) Leo Haviland June 14, 2013

The broad real trade-weighted United States dollar (TWD) not only will remain relatively weak, but also it probably will test its July 2011 bottom around 80.5 in the relatively near future.

Within and between currency, interest rate, stock, and commodity domains, observers debate marketplace intertwining, convergence/divergence, and lead/lag relationships and issues. In any event, since the economic crisis walked onto the world stage in mid-2007, and especially after its acceleration during 2008, many marketplace gurus ardently have promoted the guideline that a “weak US dollar equals strong US (and many other) stock marketplaces, strong dollar equals weak US stocks”. This beloved relationship probably no longer holds. In the current theater, the weak US dollar (and any further deterioration in it) now probably translates into falling American stock marketplace prices (use the S+P 500 as a benchmark). In addition, a still-relatively weak TWD (one not sustaining a venture much above its June 2012 peak at 86.3) will not bolster equities much if at all.

In recent months, and especially in the past several weeks, US dollar cross rates have displayed competing perspectives regarding dollar strength. Thus the dollar sometimes appears to be walking a tightrope. The US dollar has rallied recently against the currencies of many developing (and some rather developed) nations and assorted emerging marketplace nations. Several of these domains represent key commodity producers. However, the US dollar has eroded in recent weeks against the currencies of several of its major trading partners such as the Japanese Yen and Euro FX. The dollar remains relatively feeble against the Chinese renminbi as well. This weakness in these key crosses underlines not only the current weakness in the TWD, but also warns that the TWD is quite vulnerable to renewed declines. Moreover, falls of the US dollar in these key crosses (as does the weakness in the TWD in general) indicate that further declines in the US stock marketplace loom ahead (despite the Federal Reserve’s longstanding accommodative policies.

This viewpoint on intertwined US dollar and US equity weakness fits the stories of the dive in emerging marketplace equities (which began in 4/27/11; the “MSCI emerging stock markets index”/MXEF at 1212) and the fall in commodity prices (broad Goldman Sachs Commodity Index’s major downtrend commenced in spring 2011 with the 4/11 and 5/2/11 highs at 762), as well as the bear trend in US government notes. Yields for the 10 year UST bottomed 7/25/12 around 1.38pc; they established other important floors at 1.55pc (11/16/12) and 1.61pc (5/1/13). Note the fall in the MXEF from its 5/9/13 high around 1065 alongside the rise in US rates (especially from the 5/1/13 depth) in the context of the slump in many emerging/developing/commodity producing marketplace cross rates versus the dollar. Keep in mind the timing links (similar directional moves) in recent years between the MXEF and the S+P 500 (even though the S+P 500 climbed to new highs after spring 2011). The renewed faltering in emerging stock marketplaces in recent weeks warns of a notable fall in the S+P 500.

The S+P 500’s high on 5/22/13 near 1687 probably represents (or is very close to) a very significant high.

Japanese-Yen-versus-US-Dollar-Chart-(6-14-13,-for-Seeking-Directions-Essay)

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Seeking Directions- US Dollar Retreats, Advances, and Relationships (6-14-13)
Japanese Yen versus US Dollar Chart (6-14-13)