GLOBAL ECONOMICS AND POLITICS
Leo Haviland provides clients with original, provocative, cutting-edge fundamental supply/demand and technical research on major financial marketplaces and trends. He also offers independent consulting and risk management advice.
Haviland’s expertise is macro. He focuses on the intertwining of equity, debt, currency, and commodity arenas, including the political players, regulatory approaches, social factors, and rhetoric that affect them. In a changing and dynamic global economy, Haviland’s mission remains constant – to give timely, value-added marketplace insights and foresights.
Leo Haviland has three decades of experience in the Wall Street trading environment. He has worked for Goldman Sachs, Sempra Energy Trading, and other institutions. In his research and sales career in stock, interest rate, foreign exchange, and commodity battlefields, he has dealt with numerous and diverse financial institutions and individuals. Haviland is a graduate of the University of Chicago (Phi Beta Kappa) and the Cornell Law School.
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Europe’s ongoing sovereign debt and banking crisis grasps many headlines and excites worldwide fear. America’s continuous federal fiscal fiasco and restless debates regarding it will continue to capture attention as election year 2012 beckons. Yet noteworthy debt, deficit, and funding issues lurk in other financial corners.
In America, state and local debt topics generally feature less prominently in marketplace and national media commentary. However, the federal story is not the whole story. State and local debt is substantial. Moreover, pension (and other benefit) funding obligations represent a huge challenge for many states and communities. It pays to focus on these matters alongside federal and household indebtedness, for it further highlights the status and policies of the 50 United States as a major debtor nation.
In America, in principle, each citizen “is king of its castle”. However, in a representative democracy, it should not be surprising that debt trends and levels for “individuals in general” substantially mirror those for the nation as a whole. As thriftiness can be popular, so can appetite for debt.
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State and Local Travels – US Non-Federal Debt Vistas (12-6-11)
The United States real estate marketplace, despite some improvement relative to winter 2008-09’s abyss, remains in mournful shape. During the ongoing terrible global economic crisis, nervous politicians, fearful central bankers, and enthusiastic real estate business promoters have devoted much effort and creativity in their quest to rescue the real estate arena. How should we characterize their overall performance to date? Despite their numerous at-bats and vigorous swings at the real estate debacle, the financial and political guardians have often struck out and their overall batting average remains low.
Perhaps the real estate scene will become brighter. After all, central bankers and politicians always have upcoming opportunities to step up to the plate. They will keep swinging and whacking at real estate problems. Nevertheless, the still-feeble US real estate world underlines the fragile foundation and structure of the economic revival fabricated by the Federal Reserve (and its overseas central bank teammates) and political crews. Despite some progress, the shattering damage of the international economic disaster that commenced in 2007 has not been substantially fixed. The economic crisis persists and will continue for several more innings. Though the worldwide economic advance that emerged in spring 2009 reflects repairs and is not entirely a house of cards, it’s not entirely built on solid ground. Money printing and deficit spending are not genuine (enduring) cures for economic problems.
The recent slowdown in the overall economic landscape will hinder the US real estate recovery. Therefore American real estate prices will remain relatively weak.
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Still Swamped – US Real Estate (10-11-11)
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