GLOBAL ECONOMICS AND POLITICS

Leo Haviland provides clients with original, provocative, cutting-edge fundamental supply/demand and technical research on major financial marketplaces and trends. He also offers independent consulting and risk management advice.

Haviland’s expertise is macro. He focuses on the intertwining of equity, debt, currency, and commodity arenas, including the political players, regulatory approaches, social factors, and rhetoric that affect them. In a changing and dynamic global economy, Haviland’s mission remains constant – to give timely, value-added marketplace insights and foresights.

Leo Haviland has three decades of experience in the Wall Street trading environment. He has worked for Goldman Sachs, Sempra Energy Trading, and other institutions. In his research and sales career in stock, interest rate, foreign exchange, and commodity battlefields, he has dealt with numerous and diverse financial institutions and individuals. Haviland is a graduate of the University of Chicago (Phi Beta Kappa) and the Cornell Law School.

 

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US DOLLAR DEPRECIATION: ANXIETY OVER AMERICA © Leo Haviland July 1, 2025

President Andrew Jackson’s veto of the Bank of the US bill message (7/10/1832) declared: “It is time to pause in our career, to review our principles, and if possible revive that devoted patriotism and spirit of compromise, which distinguish the sages of the revolution, and the fathers of our Union.”

President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s Annual Message to Congress (“Four Freedoms Speech”; 1/6/1941) warned that “We must especially beware of that small group of selfish men who would clip the wings of the American eagle in order to feather their own nests.”

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CONCLUSION

The Federal Reserve releases a real Broad Dollar Index (H.10; January 2006=100; monthly average) as well as a nominal Broad Dollar Index (daily data) covering both goods and services. These Indexes are useful measures of overall United States dollar strength (weakness) and trends. “As the World Turns: Marketplace Battlefields” (1/1/25) noted: “Though the ‘overall’ United States dollar may remain strong for a while longer due to relatively lofty US interest rates, the real Broad Dollar Index probably will begin to decline from around current levels, which have reached the major resistance barriers of autumn 2022. It eventually will retreat toward its key support at April 2020’s 113.4 elevation (recall also December 2023’s 113.8).” “Shakin’ All Over: Financial and Political Turmoil” (4/1/25) emphasized: “The real Broad Dollar Index probably peaked in January 2025 and likely will continue to decline over the long run.” 

The real Broad Dollar Index attained its summit in January 2025 at 122.6, and the nominal Broad Dollar Index peaked at 130.2 on 1/13/25. Through June 2025, the real Broad Dollar Index has depreciated about 6.3 percent from its January 2025 high, and the nominal Broad Dollar Index has descended 7.8 percent. The US dollar probably will continue to depreciate. Though marketplace history of course does not necessarily repeat itself, either entirely or even partly, this dollar bear move probably will be fairly substantial and may last several years. Competitive depreciation may mitigate the US dollar’s long run decline, but it will not avert its fall.

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US Dollar Depreciation- Anxiety Over America (7-1-25)

US DOLLAR AND OTHER MARKETPLACE ADVENTURES © Leo Haviland February 5, 2023

The rap music group Wu-Tang Clan sings in “C.R.E.A.M.”: “Cash, Rules, Everything, Around, Me C.R.E.A.M. Get the money Dollar, dollar bill, y’all.”

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CONCLUSION

Based upon the Federal Reserve Board’s real and nominal Broad Dollar Indices, the United States dollar probably established a major top in autumn 2022. Its subsequent decline intertwined with a fall in the yield in the US 10 year Treasury note, and the dollar depreciation and UST yield decline interrelated with and encouraged notable price climbs in the S+P 500, emerging marketplace stocks, and several other important “search for yield” playgrounds.

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However, for the near term, the Broad Dollar Indices (“BDI”) probably will appreciate some, thereby retracing some of the tumble from their autumn pinnacles. Why?

First, the Federal Reserve recently reemphasized its devotion to its monetary tightening agenda in its battle to return inflation to its two percent objective. This sentinel also has not ruled out further Federal Funds rate increases. It continues to reduce the size of its bloated balance sheet. Moreover, this noble guardian signals an intent to maintain policy rates for quite some time at heights sufficient to bring inflation down to acceptable levels. Unemployment figures remain very low (the Fed stresses “the labor market remains extremely tight”), further suggesting the likelihood that Fed policy will remain moderately hawkish for an extended time. See the 2/1/23 FOMC statement and the Fed Chairman’s Press Conference.

Also, the dollar’s weakness since autumn 2022, and the rally in key global stock marketplaces such as the S+P 500, has not been matched by a sustained rally in commodities “in general”. All else equal, a weaker US dollar tends to boost the nominal price of dollar-denominated assets. Marketplace history is not marketplace destiny. However, despite occasional divergence, over the long run commodities in general have moved in similar time and price patterns with the S+P 500. Yet commodities in recent months, despite occasional rallies, have remained comparatively weak. Even the petroleum complex, despite vigorous OPEC+ efforts to support the price and embargoes on Russia imports, has shown merely intermittent strength; it resumed its slump . This relative feebleness in commodities despite dollar depreciation hints that at least for the near term, the dollar probably will not decline much further in the near term.

In addition, as of January 2023, the real broad Dollar Index (a monthly average) borders important support, April 2020’s 113.4 summit. The nominal BDI (daily data) has retreated around ten percent from its autumn 2022 pinnacle, an important “correction” distance.

Consider recent US rhetoric about the importance of democracy relative to autocracy. For example, see the White House’s “National Security Strategy” (10/12/22). Is that wordplay and related American global policy actions on topics such as the Ukraine/Russia conflict and the Taiwan/China relationship an effort to keep the dollar fairly strong?

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US Dollar and Other Marketplace Adventures (2-5-23)