US DOLLAR DEPRECIATION: ANXIETY OVER AMERICA © Leo Haviland July 1, 2025
President Andrew Jackson’s veto of the Bank of the US bill message (7/10/1832) declared: “It is time to pause in our career, to review our principles, and if possible revive that devoted patriotism and spirit of compromise, which distinguish the sages of the revolution, and the fathers of our Union.”
President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s Annual Message to Congress (“Four Freedoms Speech”; 1/6/1941) warned that “We must especially beware of that small group of selfish men who would clip the wings of the American eagle in order to feather their own nests.”
****
CONCLUSION
The Federal Reserve releases a real Broad Dollar Index (H.10; January 2006=100; monthly average) as well as a nominal Broad Dollar Index (daily data) covering both goods and services. These Indexes are useful measures of overall United States dollar strength (weakness) and trends. “As the World Turns: Marketplace Battlefields” (1/1/25) noted: “Though the ‘overall’ United States dollar may remain strong for a while longer due to relatively lofty US interest rates, the real Broad Dollar Index probably will begin to decline from around current levels, which have reached the major resistance barriers of autumn 2022. It eventually will retreat toward its key support at April 2020’s 113.4 elevation (recall also December 2023’s 113.8).” “Shakin’ All Over: Financial and Political Turmoil” (4/1/25) emphasized: “The real Broad Dollar Index probably peaked in January 2025 and likely will continue to decline over the long run.”
The real Broad Dollar Index attained its summit in January 2025 at 122.6, and the nominal Broad Dollar Index peaked at 130.2 on 1/13/25. Through June 2025, the real Broad Dollar Index has depreciated about 6.3 percent from its January 2025 high, and the nominal Broad Dollar Index has descended 7.8 percent. The US dollar probably will continue to depreciate. Though marketplace history of course does not necessarily repeat itself, either entirely or even partly, this dollar bear move probably will be fairly substantial and may last several years. Competitive depreciation may mitigate the US dollar’s long run decline, but it will not avert its fall.
FOLLOW THE LINK BELOW to download this article as a PDF file.
US Dollar Depreciation- Anxiety Over America (7-1-25)