GLOBAL ECONOMICS AND POLITICS
Leo Haviland provides clients with original, provocative, cutting-edge fundamental supply/demand and technical research on major financial marketplaces and trends. He also offers independent consulting and risk management advice.
Haviland’s expertise is macro. He focuses on the intertwining of equity, debt, currency, and commodity arenas, including the political players, regulatory approaches, social factors, and rhetoric that affect them. In a changing and dynamic global economy, Haviland’s mission remains constant – to give timely, value-added marketplace insights and foresights.
Leo Haviland has three decades of experience in the Wall Street trading environment. He has worked for Goldman Sachs, Sempra Energy Trading, and other institutions. In his research and sales career in stock, interest rate, foreign exchange, and commodity battlefields, he has dealt with numerous and diverse financial institutions and individuals. Haviland is a graduate of the University of Chicago (Phi Beta Kappa) and the Cornell Law School.
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The worldwide petroleum supply demand situation from the physical standpoint remains bearish. However, considerable inventory oversupply in the OECD (so-called advanced nations) arguably is not mirrored in other regions. Moreover, in recent years price trends in equities and commodities roughly have tracked each other. Low short term interest rates, deficit spending, and money printing have supported equities and thus commodities. Also, relative US dollar weakness has tended to encourage the equity and commodity rallies of recent months. Alternative investment underpins commodity prices, as does some concern about political disruption of petroleum supplies. Yet the worldwide economic crisis that erupted in 2007 is not over.
The worldwide petroleum price trend is sideways. The potential range for the next several months is quite large (NYMEX nearest crude oil futures continuation basis).
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Petroleum Overview- Crosscurrents and Crossroads (9-27-10)
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