GLOBAL ECONOMICS AND POLITICS
Leo Haviland provides clients with original, provocative, cutting-edge fundamental supply/demand and technical research on major financial marketplaces and trends. He also offers independent consulting and risk management advice.
Haviland’s expertise is macro. He focuses on the intertwining of equity, debt, currency, and commodity arenas, including the political players, regulatory approaches, social factors, and rhetoric that affect them. In a changing and dynamic global economy, Haviland’s mission remains constant – to give timely, value-added marketplace insights and foresights.
Leo Haviland has three decades of experience in the Wall Street trading environment. He has worked for Goldman Sachs, Sempra Energy Trading, and other institutions. In his research and sales career in stock, interest rate, foreign exchange, and commodity battlefields, he has dealt with numerous and diverse financial institutions and individuals. Haviland is a graduate of the University of Chicago (Phi Beta Kappa) and the Cornell Law School.
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Many intertwined factors of course influence economic and stock marketplace levels and trends. Both Wall Street and Main Street know United States consumer spending greatly affects United States economic growth and significantly influences that elsewhere. In general, won’t happy and confident consumers tend to spend more freely? As Memorial Day weekend beckons, why not remember key consumer confidence measures? The Conference Board asserts that its “Consumer Confidence Index ® (CCI) is a barometer of the health of the U.S. economy from the perspective of the consumer.” (“Technical Note- February 2011”).
A review of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index over the past four decades reveals that this measure sometimes can provide helpful guidance regarding the identification (confirmation) of major highs, lows and trends in US equity benchmarks such as the S+P 500. Given the close ties between stock and overall commodity marketplace trends in recent years, commodity players should monitor the Confidence Index.
FOLLOW THE LINK BELOW to download this market essay as a PDF file.
US Consumer Confidence and Stocks