Muddy Waters’ blues song “Rollin’ and Tumblin’” declares:
“Well, I rolled and I tumbled, cried the whole night long
Well, I woke up this mornin’, didn’t know right from wrong”
Who will or should be the next American President? Will the Democrat camp, the Republican crew, or neither party, capture both the Senate and the House of Representatives? In the aftermath of 2016’s fevered campaign, will the apparently defeated Presidential candidate seriously complain of rigging or request recounts?
In any case, America’s Election Day 11/8/16 results probably will not repair, remedy, or resolve the nation’s severe political and other cultural divisions. In contrast to such ideological and practical splits, marketplace preachers generally agree the Presidential (especially) and Senate/House voting outcomes probably will have important price consequences for American (and related) stock and interest rate arenas as well as the United States dollar and many commodities. Yet financial wizards (as do politicians) differ in their perspectives and gospels. Thus assorted monetary apostles and their devoted partisans nevertheless heatedly debate what the near term and long run financial and other economic repercussions of US Election 2016 will be for America and around the globe.
Despite the uncertainty of US 11/8/16 political outcomes and the variety of competing viewpoints and rhetoric regarding related economic (commercial, financial) implications, why not offer an opinion regarding important price levels to watch in several key marketplaces? That price framework offers subjective guidance for monitoring, assessing, and dealing with intertwined political and economic results, trends, and risks.
The record high for the S+P 500 is 8/15/16’s 2194 (a 20pc rally from 2/11/16’s bottom at 1810 is 2172; 1/20/16 low 1812). A five percent rally over this is about 2304. The important 5/20/15 high was 2135. A five percent fall from 8/15/16’s plateau is 2084 (note 11/4/16’s close at 2085); 2082 was 12/19/15’s notable drop-off point. A 10pc retreat from the August 2016 summit gives 1975 (1992 was the 6/27/16 low; the UK held its Brexit referendum on 6/23/16), and a 20pc dive 1755. Note the price gap around 2040 (6/28/16 to 6/29/16). Support also may emerge around 1870 (8/24/15 low 1867; 9/29/15 trough 1872).
The shocking Brexit “Leave” result did not merely reflect populist gains. The S+P 500 responded with a sharp (although brief) 5.7pc breakdown (6/23/16 at 2113 to 6/27/16’s low).
“Here once the embattled farmers stood,
And fired the shot heard round the world.” Ralph Waldo Emerson’s “Concord Hymn” (1837), referring to the first shot of the American Revolutionary War
Though America’s official Thanksgiving Day arrives 11/24/16, many Americans and others will be thankful with the departure of Election Day 11/8/16.
Suppose Clinton wins the Presidency. Her campaign proposals include increasing taxation on the top-earning “haves” and a more burdensome capital gains tax regime. Suppose Trump triumphs. Most experts believe his tax and spending proposals, if enacted, will result in massive budget deficits. And whoever prevails, a substantial potential for ongoing sectarian conflict and legislative gridlock remains.
Most cultural observers would characterize Clinton’s victory as one for the “establishment” congregation. Some would deem a Trump win revolutionary (or reactionary). In any case, the widespread support for Trump and Sanders indicates that American “populist” viewpoints, whether within the so-called right wing/conservative domain or the left wing/liberal realm, probably will not lose much of their attractiveness or fervor anytime soon.
Besides, significant populist movements (whether rightist, leftist, or some other label) exist in Europe and elsewhere. Therefore populist enthusiasm probably will continue to cause some nervous days and sleepless nights for much of the international economic and political establishment (elite). Political and economic divisions, turmoil, and fears will continue to produce occasional dramas within entangled stock, interest rate, currency, and commodity (and real estate) marketplaces.
Suppose persuasive populist parties campaigning on a platform of “Change” win overall national power (or at least substantial practical influence) in one or more key countries. To what extent would such success encourage or confirm a dramatic shift in long run patterns for many marketplaces?
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US Election 2016- Rolling and Tumbling (11-6-16)