RISING GLOBAL INTEREST RATES AND THE STOCK MARKETPLACE BATTLEFIELD © Leo Haviland October 5, 2021
In “Life During Wartime”, the Talking Heads sing: “This ain’t no party, this ain’t no disco, this ain’t no fooling around.”
Looking forward, United States Treasury yields probably will continue to rise. So will yields for government debt in Germany and other advanced nations. In general, yields of emerging market sovereign debt securities probably will keep climbing as well. US dollar-denominated corporate debt yields also will ascend. Substantial inflation and massive government debt are important variables for this rising interest rate outlook. Increasing yields for this array of debt securities around the globe probably have created (led to) an important top around early September 2021 for the American stock battlefield (S+P 500 high 9/2/21 at 4546) and related advanced nation and emerging marketplace stock arenas, or will soon do so. There is a significant probability that the S+P 500 and related equity domains have commenced or soon will begin bear trends.
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Rising Global Interest Rates and the Stock Marketplace Battlefield (10-5-21)