“And I’ll be taking care of business, every day
Taking care of business, every way”. Taking Care of Business”, by Bachman-Turner Overdrive
CONCLUSION AND OVERVIEW
For a majority of earnest soothsayers, American corporate profitability is an important factor for US stock marketplace levels and travels. Use the S+P 500 as a benchmark for United States equities in general. In second quarter 2015, US after-tax corporate profits peaked (annualized basis). The S+P 500’s record pinnacle occurred alongside this, on 5/20/15 at 2135. It mournfully plummeted about 15.2 percent to its 1812 (1/20/16)/1810 (2/11/16) depth. Despite the S+P 500’s subsequent sharp rally, the current and near-term after-tax corporate profit trend likely will make it challenging for the S+P 500 to ascend much above (or even over) its May 2015 peak during the next several months. History reveals that several noteworthy bear moves in the S+P 500 have intertwined with noteworthy profitability slumps.
To explain past and current United States stock marketplace levels and trends, and in offering prophecies regarding future heights and patterns, diverse wizards tell competing tales. Their arguments and conclusions reflect their different marketplace perspectives and approaches, including the particular variables they select and arrange.
American and other corporations win or lose given amounts of money for all sorts of reasons. Factors influencing earnings and profitability change, as do the relative importance and interconnections of these variables. Long run inflation increases generally increase nominal values in general. Also, central bank policies, tax regimes, wage trends, and productivity (innovation; efficiency) developments influence sales and profits. The altitudes and paths of the US dollar, interest rate yields, and commodity prices also are relevant in various ways and degrees to particular corporations. Unemployment rates, fiscal situations (budget deficits), debt levels and trends (government, corporate, and consumer), regulatory structures, and population growth matter. America is not an island apart from the rest of the world; globalization has increased in recent decades.
Admittedly, the ongoing (extraordinary) very lax monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Board and other central bank guardians such as the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and China’s central bank helps underpin equity prices in America and elsewhere. Stock-owning audiences around the globe (particularly the praiseworthy investment community) as well as Wall Street institutions, public corporations, and the financial media friends generally adore massive money printing (quantitative easing) and sustained yield repression. Low interest rate yields for US Treasury securities (and negative yields for many government debt obligations elsewhere) encourage fervent scrambles for acceptable returns elsewhere. These often-alluring territories include stock realms (hunting for dividends and potential capital gain), corporate debt, and commodities. American inflation has been quite modest in recent years. Yet as nominal prices in general (all else equal) tend to rise alongside (or on a lagged basis) a climb in US nominal GDP, so will a nominally priced index such as the S+P 500.
The S+P 500’s retreat beginning in May 2015 interrelated with the preceding bear trends in emerging marketplace stocks and commodities (notably petroleum) and a further bull charge in the broad real trade-weighted dollar (“TWD”). Significantly, the S+P 500 (and stocks of other key advanced nations), emerging marketplace equities (“MXEF”, MSCI Emerging Stock Markets Index, from Morgan Stanley; 1/21/16 at 687), and commodities in general (broad GSCI at 268 on 1/20/16) all attained significant troughs around the same time in first quarter 2016. The US Treasury 10 year note yield low was 2/11/16 at 1.53 percent. The TWD established its recent high alongside these marketplaces in January 2016. This interconnection across assorted marketplaces assisted the rally in the S+P 500 from its January/February lows.
Thus to some extent, the recent weakness in the broad real trade-weighted dollar encouraged the ascent of the S+P 500. In any case, central banks did not want the TWD to ascend by much, if at all, over its January 2016 high. They likewise wanted to arrest stock marketplace declines.
However, suppose the TWD declines further from current levels, perhaps ten percent or more from its January 2016 elevation. Although the first stage of dollar decline has managed to spark and assist a S+P 500 rally, additional sustained depreciation eventually may undermine equity prices. Besides, even if the TWD fall from its January plateau does not reach ten percent, the S+P 500 nevertheless may slide lower. Marketplace history reveals that a weaker dollar does not inevitably (or necessarily) push US stocks upward. And also suppose US interest rates or inflation expectations sustain modest climbs. Rising US Treasury yields can help to lead S+P 500 prices lower. Assume commodities in general manage to hold onto much of their recent gains.
In this environment, further suppose US corporate profits (and those in related regions) continue to remain sluggish (or decline further). Then the S+P 500’s fall from its high probably will be significant, even though the Federal Reserve and its trusty allies will intervene with rhetoric and action to prevent dramatic stock marketplace drops (particularly watch the 20 percent bear market definition threshold).
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Looking Backward, Gazing Forward- US Corporate Profits and Financial Trends (5-3-16)